Moneyline 42-7 (85.7%) at the Elo 70%+ tier since the 2026-27 opener. Table: 2026-27 season, 22 graded days, Oct 20, 2026 – Nov 11, 2026. Every pick is settled against the final box score the next morning; the record was rebuilt from the daily archives on 2026-09-20 so each row is reproducible.
| Market | Play rule | Record | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Elo side ≥ 70% | 42-7 | 85.7% |
| Win @ proj. margin 5+ | projected margin ≥ 5 | 62-15 | 80.5% |
| Points | model ≥ 65% | 271-242 | 52.8% |
| Rebounds † | model ≥ 65% vs its own line | 86-44 | 66.2% |
| Assists | model ≥ 65% | 328-210 | 61.0% |
| Double-double | model ≥ 60% | 45-24 | 65.2% |
| Triple-double | model ≥ 30% | 3-7 | small sample |
Green clears the -110 break-even of 52.4%; amber does not. † Rebounds is graded against a line the model sets from the player's own recent average (no book carries one), so its hit rate is not comparable to a market price. Tonight's boards: points, rebounds, assists, double-doubles. How the props are graded; how the NBA moneyline is picked. The dashboard below is the same tracker, live.