NBA Points Props Tonight

How the points projection works

Points is the noisiest of the three big NBA prop markets. A player's scoring swings with shot volume, foul trouble, blowouts and rotation changes, so a single projected number tells you little. The model builds a distribution instead: an XGBoost regression projects the mean from his last eight games (minutes and points per minute), rest, back-to-back, home/away and the opponent's defensive rating and pace; the spread of those eight games, floored and widened by a calibration factor, sets the width; and a z-score against the line gives the probability that he finishes over it.

A play is badged only when one side reaches 65%. That threshold is the same one the grader uses, so the hit rate on this page is the hit rate of exactly what was badged — not of a curated subset.

What the record actually says

Last season the points model graded roughly even at the 65% tier — around 50%, which does not beat the -110 break-even of 52.4%. Rebounds and assists did; points did not. That number is on the page because a prop board that hides its own record is not worth reading. The practical use of the points board is the distribution: the last-10 chart (and, for members, the alt-line ladder) shows where a line sits inside a player's recent range, which is more useful than the direction call at the main line.

Where points DOES carry signal is in-game: the live points tracker re-projects every 60 seconds from the box score, and the live record on the performance page shows how far its final-points estimate has missed at each quarter break, next to a plain scoring-pace projection. If you want the points market, that is the tool.

Reading a card

Each card shows the book line, the model's over/under split, the last-10 average against the line, and — under Details — a bar for each of the last ten games (green cleared the line, red did not). Members also get the alt-line ladder with its over/under probabilities. A player whose last-10 bars are all green at a line two points below his average is a different bet from one whose bars alternate, even if both print 65%.

Other NBA boards

Props are one night at a time; for the season ahead, the NBA season predictions project the standings and each team's win total from a simulation of the full schedule.