NBA 2026-27 Predictions: Projected Standings and Title Odds
Updated Wed, Oct 7, 9:10 AM ET · season opens Tuesday, October 20, 2026
Every team's projected record, the range it will most likely land in, and its chances of making the playoffs, winning its conference and winning the title, from 20,000 simulations of the full season, play-in and playoffs. The ratings use game results only, never betting lines, and the page rebuilds every day as results land.
Title favorites
Eastern Conference
| # | Team | Proj WProj W-L | Playoffs | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KnicksNew York Knicks | 58.2-23.8 | 96% | 21% |
| 2 | PistonsDetroit Pistons | 49.9-32.1 | 83% | 6% |
| 3 | CelticsBoston Celtics | 49.1-32.9 | 82% | 5% |
| 4 | HornetsCharlotte Hornets | 48.6-33.4 | 80% | 5% |
| 5 | CavaliersCleveland Cavaliers | 47.0-35.0 | 75% | 3% |
| 6 | MagicOrlando Magic | 44.5-37.5 | 66% | 2% |
| 7 | RaptorsToronto Raptors | 44.1-37.9 | 65% | 2% |
| 8 | HawksAtlanta Hawks | 43.2-38.8 | 62% | 2% |
| 9 | 76ersPhiladelphia 76ers | 43.2-38.8 | 62% | 2% |
| 10 | HeatMiami Heat | 42.2-39.8 | 58% | 1% |
| 11 | BucksMilwaukee Bucks | 31.7-50.3 | 20% | <1% |
| 12 | BullsChicago Bulls | 31.1-50.9 | 18% | <1% |
| 13 | PacersIndiana Pacers | 31.0-51.0 | 18% | <1% |
| 14 | NetsBrooklyn Nets | 26.4-55.6 | 8% | <1% |
| 15 | WizardsWashington Wizards | 24.1-57.9 | 5% | <1% |
Sorted by projected wins. The top six in each conference go straight to the playoffs and seeds 7-10 meet in the play-in; “Playoffs” includes reaching the field through the play-in.
Western Conference
| # | Team | Proj WProj W-L | Playoffs | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SpursSan Antonio Spurs | 56.9-25.1 | 95% | 17% |
| 2 | ThunderOklahoma City Thunder | 55.4-26.6 | 94% | 14% |
| 3 | NuggetsDenver Nuggets | 48.2-33.8 | 80% | 5% |
| 4 | RocketsHouston Rockets | 46.7-35.3 | 75% | 3% |
| 5 | LakersLos Angeles Lakers | 46.3-35.7 | 74% | 3% |
| 6 | TimberwolvesMinnesota Timberwolves | 45.1-36.9 | 70% | 3% |
| 7 | ClippersLos Angeles Clippers | 43.0-39.0 | 62% | 2% |
| 8 | SunsPhoenix Suns | 42.7-39.3 | 61% | 1% |
| 9 | Trail BlazersPortland Trail Blazers | 42.1-39.9 | 59% | 2% |
| 10 | WarriorsGolden State Warriors | 36.6-45.4 | 37% | <1% |
| 11 | PelicansNew Orleans Pelicans | 35.2-46.8 | 32% | <1% |
| 12 | MavericksDallas Mavericks | 31.8-50.2 | 21% | <1% |
| 13 | KingsSacramento Kings | 30.0-52.0 | 17% | <1% |
| 14 | JazzUtah Jazz | 28.3-53.7 | 12% | <1% |
| 15 | GrizzliesMemphis Grizzlies | 27.4-54.6 | 11% | <1% |
Sorted by projected wins. The top six in each conference go straight to the playoffs and seeds 7-10 meet in the play-in; “Playoffs” includes reaching the field through the play-in.
Every game, every night from tip-off
These are season-long numbers. The daily board picks a side on every NBA game and projects player points, rebounds, assists and double-doubles; NBA moneyline plays hit 79.2% in the 2025-26 season (156 of 197), every one checked in public.
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How the projections are built
Each team carries an Elo rating that moves after every game by how surprising the result was and by the margin. Home court is worth 40 rating points, and each summer a rating keeps 60% of its distance from average, because rosters turn over.
The remaining schedule is then played out 20,000 times with the real format: the top six in each conference go straight to the playoffs, seeds 7 to 10 meet in the play-in, and four best-of-seven rounds follow. Before the season, extra spread is added to each team's strength so that the ranges are honest; that spread shrinks as games are played.
What it does not know: trades, signings and injuries that have not shown up in results yet. Check the NBA injury report for who is out.
Questions
Who is favored to win the 2026-27 NBA title?
The New York Knicks lead at 21%, ahead of the San Antonio Spurs (17%) and the Oklahoma City Thunder (14%), across 20,000 simulated seasons. No team is above even money: the playoffs are best-of-seven series, and an injury or trade can reshape a contender within weeks.
When does the 2026-27 NBA season start?
The regular season opens on Tuesday, October 20, 2026 with Celtics at Pistons, 76ers at Knicks and Thunder at Spurs. Each team plays 82 games, the play-in follows for seeds 7 to 10 in each conference, and the playoffs are four best-of-seven rounds.
How are these NBA predictions made?
Every team carries an Elo rating built only from game results and margins, never from betting lines. Ratings are pulled partway back to average each summer, then the full schedule, play-in and playoff bracket are simulated 20,000 times. Each percentage is the share of those seasons in which it happened.
How accurate are preseason NBA win projections?
Less precise than they look, which is why every team shows a range. In a backtest over five seasons (2021-22 to 2025-26, 150 team-seasons) the 90% range caught 91% of actual win totals. Summer trades are not in the ratings until games are played, so expect early-season movement.