Championship Odds
Season-long probabilities for every team, from tens of thousands of simulated seasons played out over the games that remain. Rebuilt daily as results land. These are probabilities, not prices — what a bet is worth depends on the number your book is showing, which is your call, not ours.
MLBWorld Series & Playoff Odds
2,429 played · 1 leftBye is the chance of finishing top-two in the league and skipping the best-of-3 Wild Card round altogether — the most valuable thing a team can win in this format, and why two clubs on similar records can face very different Octobers.
| Team | Proj. | Division | Bye | Playoffs | World Series |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Milwaukee Brewers National League Central · 103-59 | 103.0-59.0 | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 24.8% |
Los Angeles Dodgers National League West · 100-62 | 100.0-62.0 | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 17.9% |
Tampa Bay Rays American League East · 98-64 | 98.0-64.0 | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 14.3% |
Cleveland Guardians American League Central · 85-77 | 85.0-77.0 | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 8.7% |
New York Yankees American League East · 93-68 | 93.6-68.4 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 8.0% |
San Diego Padres National League West · 91-71 | 91.0-71.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 5.8% |
Atlanta Braves National League East · 94-68 | 94.0-68.0 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 4.3% |
Boston Red Sox American League East · 87-75 | 87.0-75.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 4.2% |
Philadelphia Phillies National League East · 88-74 | 88.0-74.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 4.1% |
Chicago Cubs National League Central · 89-73 | 89.0-73.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 3.3% |
Division Races
American League Central
American League East
American League West
National League Central
National League East
National League West
How the MLB numbers are built
Each club carries an Elo rating built only from games already played, tuned on baseball rather than borrowed from our football model — MLB home teams win just 52.8% of the time, so the home edge is about a third of the NFL's. Every remaining game is simulated at that rating; each simulated season is then seeded under the real format and the bracket played out: best-of-3 Wild Card with the higher seed hosting all three, best-of-5 Division Series, best-of-7 League Championship Series and World Series.
How much to trust it: with 2,429 games played and 1 left, the standings carry nearly all the information and the ratings carry little. That makes this much firmer than a preseason projection — but it forecasts how the remaining schedule is likely to fall, not who is best.
Tiebreakers use record, then head-to-head for a two-way tie, then division record, then at random; MLB's full ladder goes further, but the remaining rungs are near-symmetric so resolving them randomly is unbiased for a probability. Elo carries team strength only -- injuries, call-ups and trades enter only once results move the rating. Run with 0 games left per team, so the standings carry most of the information and the rating carries little.
Simulated win spread 10.85 games against 11.04 in the current standings — closely matched, as it should be this late. A typical full season spreads 12.44; 2026 is a tighter year than most. Rebuilt 2026-10-28 12:30:18 UTC.
NFLSuper Bowl & Playoff Odds
107 played · 165 leftTwo games into the season, so these rest far more on ratings than on results — the opposite of the MLB table above, and the error bar below says how much.
| Team | Proj. | Playoffs | Conference | Super Bowl |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Minnesota Vikings NFC North | 12.9-4.1 | 95.8% | 25.5% | 13.2% |
Buffalo Bills AFC East | 12.0-5.0 | 90.5% | 21.3% | 11.6% |
San Francisco 49ers NFC West | 12.2-4.8 | 95.0% | 20.8% | 10.4% |
Denver Broncos AFC West | 11.5-5.5 | 87.1% | 16.9% | 9.1% |
Seattle Seahawks NFC West | 10.5-6.5 | 74.1% | 14.7% | 8.0% |
Jacksonville Jaguars AFC South | 11.1-5.9 | 87.4% | 14.6% | 7.4% |
Kansas City Chiefs AFC West | 10.9-6.1 | 83.6% | 10.8% | 5.1% |
Pittsburgh Steelers AFC North | 10.7-6.3 | 71.8% | 9.5% | 4.7% |
Cincinnati Bengals AFC North | 10.8-6.2 | 75.2% | 9.2% | 4.5% |
New England Patriots AFC East | 9.8-7.2 | 66.5% | 8.3% | 4.2% |
Division Races
AFC East
AFC North
AFC South
AFC West
NFC East
NFC North
NFC South
NFC West
How the NFL numbers are built
How much to trust it: Preseason Elo predicts final season win totals at corr 0.430, MAE 2.41 wins over 352 team-seasons (2015-2025), against 2.6 for giving every team 8.5. Real signal, and a modest one; it sharpens as results land.
Ties are not simulated. A division winner is decided on record, then head-to-head, then division and conference record, then at random; seeding among division winners and wild cards uses record, division and conference record, then at random, without head-to-head. Elo carries team strength only — injuries and trades enter the number only once results move the rating. Projected records are conservative: the strength-uncertainty term compresses them by roughly a further 14%, so a top team's true projection is about half a win higher than shown.
Rebuilt 2026-10-28 09:35:06 UTC.
NBANBA Title & Playoff Odds
56 played · 1,174 leftSeeds 1–6 in each conference go straight to the playoffs; 7–10 play in for the last two spots. Proj. W is the average final win total over every simulated season (82 games each).
| Team | Proj. W | Top 6 | Play-in | Playoffs | Division | Conference | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
New York Knicks 1-3 · Atlantic | 51.4 | 76.5% | 19.2% | 88.2% | 32.3% | 20.5% | 9.6% |
Detroit Pistons 3-1 · Central | 50.4 | 72.6% | 21.7% | 85.2% | 48.1% | 13.0% | 5.5% |
Philadelphia 76ers 3-1 · Atlantic | 49.8 | 70.8% | 22.7% | 83.7% | 26.2% | 12.2% | 5.4% |
Cleveland Cavaliers 2-1 · Central | 49.6 | 69.5% | 24.2% | 83.5% | 43.1% | 13.4% | 5.9% |
Boston Celtics 3-1 · Atlantic | 48.8 | 66.5% | 26.0% | 81.5% | 22.6% | 11.7% | 5.0% |
Toronto Raptors 2-1 · Atlantic | 47.5 | 60.9% | 29.3% | 78.0% | 18.8% | 10.0% | 4.3% |
Orlando Magic 1-2 · Southeast | 44.5 | 47.8% | 35.9% | 67.4% | 33.1% | 6.6% | 2.5% |
Charlotte Hornets 3-1 · Southeast | 43.4 | 42.8% | 38.0% | 62.0% | 28.8% | 4.8% | 1.7% |
Atlanta Hawks 2-2 · Southeast | 43.3 | 43.4% | 37.6% | 62.3% | 28.6% | 4.4% | 1.6% |
Indiana Pacers 2-2 · Central | 36.4 | 18.3% | 36.6% | 34.2% | 6.0% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
Miami Heat 0-4 · Southeast | 34.3 | 13.3% | 33.3% | 28.2% | 7.2% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
Milwaukee Bucks 1-3 · Central | 30.3 | 6.4% | 23.2% | 15.2% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
Washington Wizards 2-2 · Southeast | 29.0 | 4.6% | 20.1% | 12.0% | 2.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
Chicago Bulls 1-3 · Central | 28.7 | 4.5% | 19.1% | 11.6% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
Brooklyn Nets 0-4 · Atlantic | 25.9 | 2.3% | 13.2% | 7.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Team | Proj. W | Top 6 | Play-in | Playoffs | Division | Conference | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oklahoma City Thunder 4-0 · Northwest | 59.9 | 95.3% | 4.3% | 98.4% | 63.9% | 35.5% | 23.4% |
San Antonio Spurs 2-2 · Southwest | 54.3 | 85.1% | 13.0% | 93.8% | 59.8% | 20.8% | 12.5% |
Portland Trail Blazers 3-0 · Northwest | 50.8 | 73.6% | 21.8% | 86.9% | 18.3% | 10.9% | 6.1% |
Los Angeles Lakers 3-1 · Pacific | 49.4 | 68.6% | 25.3% | 83.9% | 67.8% | 8.9% | 4.6% |
Houston Rockets 4-0 · Southwest | 49.1 | 67.3% | 26.2% | 82.3% | 30.9% | 7.3% | 3.5% |
Minnesota Timberwolves 3-1 · Northwest | 48.3 | 64.4% | 28.3% | 81.2% | 12.0% | 7.6% | 3.8% |
Denver Nuggets 1-2 · Northwest | 44.0 | 46.8% | 37.1% | 67.5% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 2.2% |
Phoenix Suns 1-2 · Pacific | 38.3 | 24.6% | 40.3% | 44.6% | 16.8% | 1.2% | 0.5% |
Dallas Mavericks 2-2 · Southwest | 37.7 | 21.9% | 41.7% | 41.3% | 4.8% | 1.1% | 0.5% |
Memphis Grizzlies 4-0 · Southwest | 35.1 | 14.6% | 37.1% | 29.9% | 3.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
Golden State Warriors 1-3 · Pacific | 35.0 | 14.9% | 37.0% | 31.9% | 9.2% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
Los Angeles Clippers 1-2 · Pacific | 31.8 | 8.7% | 28.8% | 20.4% | 5.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
New Orleans Pelicans 0-3 · Southwest | 31.1 | 7.7% | 27.6% | 19.4% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
Utah Jazz 1-3 · Northwest | 29.8 | 5.6% | 23.8% | 15.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
Sacramento Kings 0-4 · Pacific | 22.3 | 0.9% | 7.7% | 3.4% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
How the NBA numbers are built
Each team carries the same Elo rating as our NBA power rankings, built from results — who won, by how much, and where — plus a preseason adjustment for roster moves. Every remaining game is simulated at that rating with a small home-court edge, and each simulated season is seeded under the real format: the play-in for seeds 7–10, a fixed bracket, best-of-7 every round with the better record hosting games 1, 2, 5 and 7. 20,000 seasons, rebuilt daily. Projected standings with a win range for every team are on the NBA season predictions page. Two games per team are NBA Cup games the league schedules in December; until then they are simulated against random opponents.
How much to trust it: NBA rosters change a lot over a summer, so early in the season each team's strength is deliberately blurred (87.9 Elo points today). Tuned on five past seasons, that is the amount that makes a preseason forecast honest: its 90% ranges caught 91% of real win totals, against 50% for the ratings alone. The blur shrinks as games are played.
Rebuilt 2026-10-28 13:10:05 UTC.
NHLStanley Cup & Playoff Odds
198 played · 1,146 leftSixteen teams make it: the top three in each division plus two wild cards per conference. Proj. pts is the average final points total over every simulated season (84 games each).
| Team | Proj. pts | Playoffs | Division | Conference | Stanley Cup |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Carolina Hurricanes Metropolitan · 10-2-2 (22 pts) | 110.4 | 92.2% | 56.2% | 19.6% | 11.9% |
Colorado Avalanche Central · 6-5-1 (13 pts) | 102.3 | 81.9% | 22.9% | 16.4% | 8.9% |
Dallas Stars Central · 7-4-1 (15 pts) | 102.7 | 81.8% | 23.2% | 14.8% | 7.5% |
Tampa Bay Lightning Atlantic · 7-3-1 (15 pts) | 103.9 | 76.9% | 27.1% | 12.9% | 7.1% |
Minnesota Wild Central · 9-3-2 (20 pts) | 104.7 | 87.6% | 30.0% | 13.5% | 6.7% |
Edmonton Oilers Pacific · 8-2-2 (18 pts) | 101.9 | 83.1% | 38.1% | 11.5% | 5.3% |
Boston Bruins Atlantic · 9-3-1 (19 pts) | 102.4 | 73.3% | 21.8% | 9.8% | 5.1% |
Vegas Golden Knights Pacific · 9-4-1 (19 pts) | 100.1 | 79.5% | 31.9% | 10.3% | 4.8% |
Montréal Canadiens Atlantic · 7-3-2 (16 pts) | 100.5 | 66.7% | 16.8% | 8.5% | 4.6% |
Ottawa Senators Atlantic · 8-5-0 (16 pts) | 98.4 | 60.6% | 12.5% | 7.7% | 4.0% |
Washington Capitals Metropolitan · 6-4-0 (12 pts) | 97.8 | 61.3% | 13.3% | 7.1% | 3.8% |
Utah Mammoth Central · 8-5-0 (16 pts) | 98.5 | 71.4% | 13.7% | 8.6% | 3.7% |
Buffalo Sabres Atlantic · 5-4-3 (13 pts) | 96.2 | 51.6% | 8.8% | 6.3% | 3.3% |
New Jersey Devils Metropolitan · 8-4-0 (16 pts) | 96.7 | 57.6% | 11.8% | 6.0% | 3.0% |
Florida Panthers Atlantic · 7-4-2 (16 pts) | 94.9 | 47.5% | 7.2% | 4.6% | 2.3% |
St. Louis Blues Central · 5-6-1 (11 pts) | 91.3 | 46.8% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 2.1% |
Division Races
Atlantic
Central
Metropolitan
Pacific
How the NHL numbers are built
Each club carries the same Elo rating as our NHL game pages and power rankings, built only from results. Every remaining game is simulated at that rating, about one in five goes past regulation so the loser takes a point, and each simulated season is seeded under the real format and the bracket played out: fixed division brackets, best-of-7 every round, the team with more points hosting games 1, 2, 5 and 7. 20,000 seasons, rebuilt daily. Projected standings for all 32 clubs are on the NHL season predictions page.
How much to trust it: early in the season the ratings carry nearly everything, so each team's strength is deliberately blurred (46.2 Elo points today) — tested on the last two seasons, that is the amount that makes a preseason forecast honest about how wrong it can be. The blur shrinks as games are played.
Simulated points spread 13.93 (recent seasons 13.2–17.6). Rebuilt 2026-10-28 12:40:37 UTC.
CFBNational Title & Playoff Odds
570 played · 322 leftEvery FBS team's path to the 12-team playoff, simulated 10,000 times: conference title, playoff bid, first-round bye, national title. The percentages are probabilities, not picks.
| Team | Record | Proj. W | Conf. Title | Playoff | Bye | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Indiana Hoosiers Big Ten | 7-1 | 11.0 | 39.7% | 100.0% | 93.6% | 22.4% |
Ohio State Buckeyes Big Ten | 6-1 | 10.7 | 49.3% | 99.7% | 84.0% | 21.4% |
Miami Hurricanes ACC | 7-0 | 11.9 | 74.5% | 100.0% | 94.9% | 21.1% |
Utah Utes Big 12 | 7-0 | 11.2 | 55.7% | 96.4% | 56.1% | 8.1% |
Georgia Bulldogs SEC | 6-1 | 10.2 | 45.0% | 91.4% | 29.6% | 7.4% |
Notre Dame Fighting Irish Independent | 6-1 | 9.9 | 0.0% | 92.0% | 20.3% | 6.4% |
James Madison Dukes Sun Belt | 7-1 | 11.3 | 76.6% | 85.0% | 6.0% | 1.9% |
Boise State Broncos Pac-12 | 6-1 | 10.2 | 73.1% | 72.2% | 2.7% | 1.4% |
Ole Miss Rebels SEC | 5-2 | 8.8 | 10.7% | 38.2% | 1.1% | 1.3% |
Texas Longhorns SEC | 5-2 | 8.5 | 6.8% | 32.9% | 0.8% | 1.3% |
Arizona Wildcats Big 12 | 6-1 | 9.5 | 16.8% | 44.5% | 2.7% | 1.2% |
Alabama Crimson Tide SEC | 6-2 | 9.1 | 11.5% | 37.5% | 0.9% | 1.1% |
UTSA Roadrunners American | 7-1 | 10.7 | 54.0% | 57.4% | 1.9% | 0.9% |
LSU Tigers SEC | 6-2 | 8.5 | 7.3% | 30.8% | 0.7% | 0.9% |
UCLA Bruins Big Ten | 7-0 | 10.7 | 9.9% | 54.3% | 2.0% | 0.8% |
BYU Cougars Big 12 | 6-1 | 9.6 | 13.8% | 34.8% | 1.2% | 0.7% |
How the college football numbers are built
How much to trust it: Results-only Elo (K=40, home edge 3 pts, 30% regression to the mean each off-season) fit on 2018-2020 and evaluated blind on 2021-2025: it predicts game margins about 2 points worse than the closing spread, so it is NOT a betting edge on single games. Season-long probabilities are what it is for.
12-team playoff, straight seeding, byes to the top 4 seeds, the 5 highest-ranked conference champions get automatic bids (2025 rules). The selection-committee ranking is approximated as rating + 25 points per net win, so record counts but a strong two-loss team can rank above an unbeaten one from a weaker league. Conference title games are simulated between the top two by conference record. Each simulated season also draws every team's true strength from a spread that shrinks as the schedule plays out.
Rebuilt 2026-10-29 10:31:15 UTC.
Not here yet
Individual Awards
MVP, Cy Young and Rookie of the Year are a different problem — predicting a ballot, not a result — and we will not publish a number for them until one is validated.
Graded Record
Season-long markets settle once a year, so there is no hit rate to show yet. Our game-by-game record is on the performance page.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Please gamble responsibly.