NHL Season Predictions 2026-27: Projected Standings, Playoff and Stanley Cup Odds
Updated Fri, Oct 23, 8:40 AM ET · 165 games played, 1,179 left
Every club's projected points total and its chances of making the playoffs, winning its division and its conference, and winning the Stanley Cup, from 20,000 simulations of the rest of the 84-game season and the playoffs. The ratings use game results only, never betting lines, and the page rebuilds every day as results land.
Every night the daily board picks a side on every NHL game and projects shots on goal, points, assists and goals, every play graded in public.
Stanley Cup favorites
Projected standings
Each conference ordered by projected points, with the record so far and the chance to make the playoffs, win the division, win the conference and win the Stanley Cup.
Eastern Conference
| Team | Proj pts | Playoffs | Cup |
|---|---|---|---|
| HurricanesCarolina HurricanesMetropolitan | 107.7 | 88% | 10% |
| LightningTampa Bay LightningAtlantic | 106.4 | 84% | 9% |
| BruinsBoston BruinsAtlantic | 102.9 | 76% | 5% |
| SenatorsOttawa SenatorsAtlantic | 99.1 | 65% | 5% |
| CapitalsWashington CapitalsMetropolitan | 96.6 | 59% | 4% |
| CanadiensMontréal CanadiensAtlantic | 96.1 | 54% | 3% |
| SabresBuffalo SabresAtlantic | 95.4 | 51% | 3% |
| RangersNew York RangersMetropolitan | 93.8 | 49% | 2% |
| DevilsNew Jersey DevilsMetropolitan | 93.4 | 47% | 2% |
| PanthersFlorida PanthersAtlantic | 91.8 | 39% | 1% |
| IslandersNew York IslandersMetropolitan | 91.6 | 42% | 2% |
| PenguinsPittsburgh PenguinsMetropolitan | 89.1 | 33% | 1% |
| Maple LeafsToronto Maple LeafsAtlantic | 89.1 | 30% | 1% |
| Red WingsDetroit Red WingsAtlantic | 88.7 | 29% | 1% |
| Blue JacketsColumbus Blue JacketsMetropolitan | 87.2 | 28% | 1% |
| FlyersPhiladelphia FlyersMetropolitan | 86.5 | 25% | 1% |
Sorted by projected points. Record is wins-losses-overtime losses so far. The top three in each division plus two wild cards per conference make the playoffs.
Western Conference
| Team | Proj pts | Playoffs | Cup |
|---|---|---|---|
| OilersEdmonton OilersPacific | 105.4 | 88% | 7% |
| StarsDallas StarsCentral | 103.7 | 82% | 8% |
| AvalancheColorado AvalancheCentral | 103.0 | 81% | 9% |
| WildMinnesota WildCentral | 100.1 | 74% | 5% |
| Golden KnightsVegas Golden KnightsPacific | 99.0 | 74% | 4% |
| MammothUtah MammothCentral | 98.8 | 70% | 4% |
| BluesSt. Louis BluesCentral | 94.9 | 57% | 3% |
| KrakenSeattle KrakenPacific | 93.6 | 56% | 2% |
| JetsWinnipeg JetsCentral | 90.9 | 42% | 2% |
| SharksSan Jose SharksPacific | 89.6 | 41% | 1% |
| PredatorsNashville PredatorsCentral | 88.2 | 33% | 1% |
| DucksAnaheim DucksPacific | 86.9 | 34% | 1% |
| KingsLos Angeles KingsPacific | 86.9 | 34% | 1% |
| FlamesCalgary FlamesPacific | 82.6 | 22% | 1% |
| BlackhawksChicago BlackhawksCentral | 77.0 | 8% | <1% |
| CanucksVancouver CanucksPacific | 70.6 | 4% | <1% |
Sorted by projected points. Record is wins-losses-overtime losses so far. The top three in each division plus two wild cards per conference make the playoffs.
Points projections
All 32 teams ranked by average final points across 20,000 simulated seasons, with the chance of making the playoffs.
- 1Carolina Hurricanes107.788%
- 2Tampa Bay Lightning106.484%
- 3Edmonton Oilers105.488%
- 4Dallas Stars103.782%
- 5Colorado Avalanche103.081%
- 6Boston Bruins102.976%
- 7Minnesota Wild100.174%
- 8Ottawa Senators99.165%
- 9Vegas Golden Knights99.074%
- 10Utah Mammoth98.870%
- 11Washington Capitals96.659%
- 12Montréal Canadiens96.154%
- 13Buffalo Sabres95.451%
- 14St. Louis Blues94.957%
- 15New York Rangers93.849%
- 16Seattle Kraken93.656%
- 17New Jersey Devils93.447%
- 18Florida Panthers91.839%
- 19New York Islanders91.642%
- 20Winnipeg Jets90.942%
- 21San Jose Sharks89.641%
- 22Pittsburgh Penguins89.133%
- 23Toronto Maple Leafs89.130%
- 24Detroit Red Wings88.729%
- 25Nashville Predators88.233%
- 26Columbus Blue Jackets87.228%
- 27Anaheim Ducks86.934%
- 28Los Angeles Kings86.934%
- 29Philadelphia Flyers86.525%
- 30Calgary Flames82.622%
- 31Chicago Blackhawks77.08%
- 32Vancouver Canucks70.64%
Every game, every night
These are season-long numbers. The daily board gives every NHL game a side from the same Elo rating, a road +1.5 puck line, a projected total and player props for shots on goal, points, assists, goals and goalie saves, with every graded play checked in public the next morning.
The week ahead, once a week
Last week's graded record — wins and losses — and the plays for the week ahead. One email, no daily noise, unsubscribe in a click.
How the projections are built
Each club carries an Elo rating that moves after every game by how surprising the result was, scaled up for wider goal margins (up to double). Home ice is worth 35 rating points, and between seasons a rating keeps two thirds of its distance from average. It is the same rating our NHL game pages and power rankings use, so they cannot disagree about who is good. No betting line goes into it.
Every remaining game is then played out at those ratings, pulled slightly toward average (the ratings slightly over-separate teams when it comes to predicting single games). About 22.1% of games go past regulation, where the loser still takes a point. Each simulated season is seeded under the real format — the top three in each division plus two wild cards per conference, a fixed bracket inside each division, best-of-seven every round, the team with more points hosting games 1, 2, 5 and 7 — and the bracket is played out. 20,000 seasons, rebuilt every morning.
Ratings alone are too sure of themselves. In a preseason backtest on the 2024-25 and 2025-26 seasons (64 team-seasons), a 90% range built from ratings alone caught only 73% of the actual points totals, so each team's strength is deliberately blurred by the amount that makes that range catch about 90%. The blur shrinks as games replace guesses (46.8 rating points today).
What it does not know: injuries, trades and goalie changes, until they show up in results. Check the NHL injury report and starting goalies for who is playing.
Questions
Who is favored to win the 2026-27 Stanley Cup?
The Carolina Hurricanes lead at 10%, ahead of the Tampa Bay Lightning (9%) and the Colorado Avalanche (9%), across 20,000 simulated seasons. No team is close to even money: sixteen teams make the playoffs and every round is a best-of-seven, so the favorite usually falls somewhere along the way.
What are the projected NHL standings for 2026-27?
In the East the Hurricanes (107.7 points), Lightning (106.4) and Bruins (102.9) project at the top; in the West, the Oilers (105.4 points), Stars (103.7) and Avalanche (103.0). The top three in each division plus two wild cards per conference make the playoffs, sixteen teams in all.
What are the NHL playoff odds for 2026-27?
Of the 32 clubs, 15 make the playoffs in more than half of the 20,000 simulated seasons; sixteen qualify each year, so a team near 50% is on the bubble. The surest are the Hurricanes (88%), Oilers (88%) and Lightning (84%); the longest shots are the Blackhawks (8%) and Canucks (4%).
Who is projected to win each NHL division in 2026-27?
Projected division winners: Atlantic, Lightning (34%); Metropolitan, Hurricanes (50%); Central, Stars (27%); Pacific, Oilers (47%). Each percentage is the share of 20,000 simulated seasons in which the team finished first in its division. Division winners open the playoffs against a wild card.
How are these NHL predictions made?
Every club carries an Elo rating built from game results and goal margins, never from betting lines. Between seasons each rating is pulled a third of the way back to average. The remaining schedule and the playoff bracket are simulated 20,000 times; each percentage is the share of those seasons in which it happened.
How often are the NHL season predictions updated?
Every morning, Eastern time, and the time of the last run is shown at the top of the page. Each result moves the ratings and the remaining schedule is simulated again 20,000 times, so the standings and odds follow the season as it is played.