NBA Double-Double Props Tonight

How the double-double model works

A double-double is a threshold event, not a count, so it is modelled as a rate. For each candidate the model takes how often he has recorded one this season (games with a double-double over games with 20+ minutes), and shows the three averages that produce it — points, rebounds, assists — so you can see which two categories carry it and how much margin each has over ten. A center averaging 15 and 11 is a different proposition from a guard averaging 22 and 9.8, even at the same rate.

A play is badged at 60%. That is the grader's threshold, so the record on this page is the record of exactly what was badged. Triple-doubles are on the subscriber board with a 30% threshold — a rarer event and a longer price.

Why this market is worth a look

Double-double props are priced by few books and modelled by fewer, which is where a rate model earns its keep: last season the play tier graded about 64%, comfortably above the 52.4% a -110 line needs. The lines that move least are the ones nobody is watching. The cases to avoid are obvious once the averages are on the card — a player whose second category sits at 9.5 lives on the wrong side of variance regardless of his season rate.

Reading a card

Each card shows the season rate as a percentage, the count of games with a double-double over games played, and the three averages. The bar is the rate. Players out or doubtful tonight are hidden by default.

Other NBA boards

Props are one night at a time; for the season ahead, the NBA season predictions project the standings and each team's win total from a simulation of the full schedule.