For every player with a realistic shot at a double-double tonight: the probability he records one, and the points, rebounds and assists averages behind it. Graded 93-53 (63.7%) at the play tier 2025-26 season.
Graded record, Mar 12, 2026 – Jun 13, 2026. Full NBA performance page — every market, every pick counted.
Projections are published for every game day of the season and graded against the box score the next morning. Until opening night, here is what the model hit last season (Mar 12, 2026 – Jun 13, 2026, 79 graded days, playoffs included) — the same counters as the performance page.
| Market | Play rule | Record | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | model ≥ 60% | 156-41 | 79.2% |
| Spread | projected margin ≥ 5 | 155-52 | 74.9% |
| Totals | strong play, 60–70% | 58-46 | 55.8% |
| Points | model ≥ 65% | 462-451 | 50.6% |
| Rebounds † | model ≥ 65% vs its own line | 203-90 | 69.3% |
| Assists | model ≥ 65% | 450-337 | 57.2% |
| Double-double | model ≥ 60% | 93-53 | 63.7% |
| Triple-double | model ≥ 30% | 11-10 | 52.4% |
Green clears the -110 break-even of 52.4%; amber does not. Hit rates are historical and not a guarantee. † Rebounds is graded against a line the model sets from the player's own recent average (no book carries one), so its hit rate is not comparable to a market price. How the props are graded, and how to find value.
Last week's graded record — wins and losses — the plays for the week ahead, and a subscriber discount code. One email, no daily noise, unsubscribe in a click.
A double-double is a threshold event, not a count, so it is modelled as a rate. For each candidate the model takes how often he has recorded one this season (games with a double-double over games with 20+ minutes), and shows the three averages that produce it — points, rebounds, assists — so you can see which two categories carry it and how much margin each has over ten. A center averaging 15 and 11 is a different proposition from a guard averaging 22 and 9.8, even at the same rate.
A play is badged at 60%. That is the grader's threshold, so the record on this page is the record of exactly what was badged. Triple-doubles are on the subscriber board with a 30% threshold — a rarer event and a longer price.
Double-double props are priced by few books and modelled by fewer, which is where a rate model earns its keep: last season the play tier graded about 64%, comfortably above the 52.4% a -110 line needs. The lines that move least are the ones nobody is watching. The cases to avoid are obvious once the averages are on the card — a player whose second category sits at 9.5 lives on the wrong side of variance regardless of his season rate.
Each card shows the season rate as a percentage, the count of games with a double-double over games played, and the three averages. The bar is the rate. Players out or doubtful tonight are hidden by default.
Points, rebounds, assists, double-doubles and triple-doubles, plus live in-game trackers. MLB, NFL and NHL included.
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