A projected rebound count for every player on the slate, from his last eight games, and the probability of clearing each half-point line around it. There is no book line on this board — read the note below before you use the number. Graded 203-90 (69.3%) at the play tier 2025-26 season — against the model's own line, not a book's.
Graded record, Mar 12, 2026 – Jun 13, 2026. Full NBA performance page — every market, every pick counted. † Rebounds is graded against a line the model sets from the player's own recent average (no book carries one), so its hit rate is not comparable to a market price.
Projections are published for every game day of the season and graded against the box score the next morning. Until opening night, here is what the model hit last season (Mar 12, 2026 – Jun 13, 2026, 79 graded days, playoffs included) — the same counters as the performance page.
| Market | Play rule | Record | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | model ≥ 60% | 156-41 | 79.2% |
| Spread | projected margin ≥ 5 | 155-52 | 74.9% |
| Totals | strong play, 60–70% | 58-46 | 55.8% |
| Points | model ≥ 65% | 462-451 | 50.6% |
| Rebounds † | model ≥ 65% vs its own line | 203-90 | 69.3% |
| Assists | model ≥ 65% | 450-337 | 57.2% |
| Double-double | model ≥ 60% | 93-53 | 63.7% |
| Triple-double | model ≥ 30% | 11-10 | 52.4% |
Green clears the -110 break-even of 52.4%; amber does not. Hit rates are historical and not a guarantee. † Rebounds is graded against a line the model sets from the player's own recent average (no book carries one), so its hit rate is not comparable to a market price. How the props are graded, and how to find value.
Last week's graded record — wins and losses — the plays for the week ahead, and a subscriber discount code. One email, no daily noise, unsubscribe in a click.
Our odds feed carries no rebound lines, so this board does not compare a projection with a book. For each player it takes his last eight games (20+ minutes), computes the mean and spread of his rebounds, and sets the line itself: the mean rounded to the nearest half, with a floor of 2.5. The probability on the card is the chance he clears that self-set line under a normal distribution, and the alt lines are the same calculation one and two rebounds either side.
That makes it a projection, not a pick. The right way to use it is to put the projected number and the alt-line probabilities against the line your own book posts. If your book has a starting centre at 9.5 and the card projects 11.4 with 74% over 10.5, that is information; the card's own "over 11.5" call is not.
The performance page shows rebounds at 203-90 (69.3%) last season, and that number is real — every play was settled against the box score. But it is the model against its own line. Because the line floors at 2.5, most graded plays were "under 2.5" on bench players who average about two rebounds: 260 of the 293 plays were unders, and the overs went 15-18. Nobody is offered that bet at -110. We show the number with a dagger everywhere it appears for that reason, and we do not rank rebounds among the markets that beat a price.
A version of this board against real book lines, with minutes, matchup and lineup inputs, is queued. Until it exists, this page says what it is.
Each card shows the self-set line, the model's over/under split around it, the last-8 average and, under Details, the alt lines and a bar per game for the last ten (green cleared the line shown, red did not). The bars are the useful part: they show a player's real range, which is what you need against a book line. Injured and doubtful players are hidden by default; the toggle shows them.
Points, rebounds, assists, double-doubles and triple-doubles, plus live in-game trackers. MLB, NFL and NHL included.
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