Tonight's top base-stealing threats · P(SB ≥ 1) per starter game · catcher-adjusted
Every probable batter ranked by his chance to steal a base tonight, adjusted for the catcher, with his last 20 games, updated through the day. See plans, or read how the projections are built below.
See plans →Stolen Bases (SB) is one of the 5 standard 5x5 Roto categories — equal weight to HR. We rank tonight's probable batters by P(SB ≥ 1) using each batter's last 20 games, calibrated with Bayesian shrinkage. 12%+ = elite stealer (top decile, ~2.3× the league average).
Phase 1 baseline — calibrated against 88,019 walk-forward batter games. Top-decile picks steal at 15.7% vs bottom-half 3.9% (11.7pp gap, 4.0× lift, +11.4pp over shuffle baseline).
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Stolen Bases (SB) is a counted category in standard 5x5 / 6x6 Roto leagues and contributes to total points in most points-league formats. Top base-stealers historically steal in 25-35% of starter games; catchers and slow corner infielders steal in 0-1% of games. Predictions are for informational purposes only.
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