MLB Home Run Props Today — ML-Ranked HR Predictions
Friday, October 2 · Tonight's top home run candidates ranked by a 64-feature XGBoost model trained on 136,000 batter-games. Barrel rate, exit velocity, opposing pitcher matchup, weather, and recent power surge — analyzed for every batter in every lineup.
- #1 Kyle Schwarber(Philadelphia Phillies)vs Ray KerrBarrel 15.6% · Exit Velo 92.4 · xISO 0.253 · 1 HR last 1523.6%HR Prob
- #2 Matt Olson(Atlanta Braves)vs Aaron NolaBarrel 14.3% · Exit Velo 92.5 · xISO 0.257 · 4 HR last 1519.3%HR Prob
- #3 Rowdy Tellez(Atlanta Braves)vs Aaron NolaBarrel 15.3% · Exit Velo 91.2 · xISO 0.245 · 3 HR last 1516.8%HR Prob
The full ranked list of all batters in tonight's lineups is below. Subscribers see all 50 ranked picks; non-subscribers see the top 3 free. Model factors include Statcast power profile (barrel rate, exit velocity, xISO), opposing pitcher HR vulnerability, ballpark factors, weather (wind direction + temperature), and recent 15-game HR pace.
Home Run Props
Friday, October 2ML-ranked batters by HR probability — barrel rate, exit velocity, weather, pitcher matchup
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HR probability scores are model outputs trained on historical Statcast data (2022–2025). Past backtested performance does not guarantee future results. Predictions are for informational purposes only. Must be 21+ where applicable. Responsible Gambling | Privacy Policy
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