XGBoost regression on 9,669 starts. Predicts total outs recorded by each starter — every K, ground out, fly out counts. Compared with real sportsbook lines.
What “Pitcher Outs” means
Every out the starting pitcher records — strikeouts, ground outs, fly outs, line outs, double plays. outs = innings_pitched × 3. A starter who goes 5.2 IP recorded 17 outs. League average is ~16.2 outs (5.4 IP) per start. More predictable than ER (5× better r). Strong Play markers are reserved for the line 16.5, the one line that held up on both the 2025 and 2026 holdout seasons; other lines show real signal but stay regular picks.
Every starter on the slate with projected outs, the over/under probability at each line from 13.5 to 20.5 and the Strong Play badges, updated three times a day. See plans, or read how the projections are built below.
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