A rushing yards projection for every running back on this week's slate, ranked. Each number is the model's median: the back should finish above it about half the time and below it about half the time.
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| Player | Matchup | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Derrick HenryRB | BAL vs DAL | 84.5yds |
| Jonathan TaylorRB | IND vs HOU | 76.0yds |
| Bucky IrvingRB | TB vs MIN | 72.5yds |
| Kenneth Walker IIIRB | KC vs MIA | 68.5yds |
| Jahmyr GibbsRB | DET vs NYJ | 67.7yds |
| Ashton JeantyRB | LV vs NO | 66.2yds |
| Breece HallRB | NYJ vs DET | 66.1yds |
| James CookRB | BUF vs LAC | 65.3yds |
| De'Von AchaneRB | MIA vs KC | 64.9yds |
| Saquon BarkleyRB | PHI vs CHI | 64.3yds |
| Chase BrownRB | CIN vs PIT | 59.7yds |
| D'Andre SwiftRB | CHI vs PHI | 55.6yds |
| Omarion HamptonRB | LAC vs BUF | 50.6yds |
| Christian McCaffreyRB | SF vs ARI | 50.4yds |
| Kyren WilliamsRB | LA vs DEN | 48.7yds |
| J.K. DobbinsRB | DEN vs LA | 48.2yds |
| Javonte WilliamsRB | DAL vs BAL | 46.8yds |
| Tony PollardRB | TEN vs NYG | 46.5yds |
| Quinshon JudkinsRB | CLE vs CAR | 45.6yds |
| Jaylen WarrenRB | PIT vs CIN | 45.4yds |
| TreVeyon HendersonRB | NE vs JAX | 44.7yds |
| Cam SkatteboRB | NYG vs TEN | 43.4yds |
| Jacory Croskey-MerrittRB | WAS vs SEA | 43.3yds |
| Aaron JonesRB | MIN vs TB | 43.2yds |
| Blake CorumRB | LA vs DEN | 43.1yds |
| Rhamondre StevensonRB | NE vs JAX | 42.1yds |
| Travis EtienneRB | NO vs LV | 41.7yds |
| Kyle MonangaiRB | CHI vs PHI | 38.9yds |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr.RB | JAX vs NE | 38.9yds |
| Woody MarksRB | HOU vs IND | 38.2yds |
| RJ HarveyRB | DEN vs LA | 37.9yds |
| Tyrone Tracy Jr.RB | NYG vs TEN | 35.9yds |
| David MontgomeryRB | HOU vs IND | 35.6yds |
| Bhayshul TutenRB | JAX vs NE | 35.5yds |
| Chuba HubbardRB | CAR vs CLE | 34.5yds |
| Tank BigsbyRB | PHI vs CHI | 34.3yds |
| Tyler AllgeierRB | ARI vs SF | 30.2yds |
| Emanuel WilsonRB | SEA vs WAS | 27.9yds |
| Alvin KamaraRB | NO vs LV | 24.4yds |
| Najee HarrisRB | NYG vs TEN | 19.9yds |
| Rachaad WhiteRB | WAS vs SEA | 18.9yds |
| Devin SingletaryRB | NYG vs TEN | 17.7yds |
| Samaje PerineRB | CIN vs PIT | 17.4yds |
| Ray DavisRB | BUF vs LAC | 17.3yds |
| Kendre MillerRB | NO vs LV | 16.9yds |
| Tyjae SpearsRB | TEN vs NYG | 16.8yds |
| Keaton MitchellRB | LAC vs BUF | 14.8yds |
| Jaleel McLaughlinRB | CLE vs CAR | 13.9yds |
| Braelon AllenRB | NYJ vs DET | 13.8yds |
| Kenny GainwellRB | TB vs MIN | 13.7yds |
| Bam KnightRB | ARI vs SF | 12.9yds |
| Jaylen WrightRB | MIA vs KC | 12.8yds |
| Kimani VidalRB | LAC vs BUF | 12.7yds |
| Raheim SandersRB | CLE vs CAR | 10.8yds |
| George HolaniRB | SEA vs WAS | 2.7yds |
An XGBoost model is trained on past NFL running back games and asked for the median rushing yards in the next one. It reads the back's carries and rushing yards over his last three, six and ten games, using prior games only, and the rushing yards his opponent has allowed over its recent games. It is retrained on every run, so each week's results feed the next projection.
No sportsbook line is an input. The model never sees the market, which is what makes the comparison with your book's number meaningful: when the two disagree, they disagree for independent reasons.
Rushing yards are one of the noisiest markets in football. A back's recent average on its own predicts his next game worse than simply guessing the league average does, because game script decides so much: a team that falls behind early stops running, and a single 50-yard carry can make a quiet afternoon look like a big one.
That is why this page publishes a median rather than a pick. A back projected for 60 yards finishing anywhere from 30 to 100 is an ordinary week. The projection is most useful where it sits well away from the line your book is hanging, not where it is a yard or two either side.
Where a sportsbook line has been logged for a player, the board shows it with the side the projection falls on. Books post player lines late in the week, so most rows show a dash until close to kickoff. Every side taken against a real line is graded on the performance page, wins and losses alike. The model has not yet been proven against real sportsbook prices, so these are projections, not picks.
Players ruled out or placed on injured reserve disappear from the board when you load the page. A backup's projection still reflects his old role, though, so when a starter is ruled out, adjust his replacement upward yourself. The NFL injury report lists who is out, game by game.
An XGBoost model trained on past running back games projects the median rushing yards for each back. It uses his carries and rushing yards over his last three, six and ten games, prior games only, and the rushing yards his opponent has allowed recently. Sportsbook lines are never an input.
It is the number the back should beat about half the time. A 65-yard projection is not a promise of 65 yards; it says the over and the under at 65 are roughly a coin flip. The useful signal is a book line several yards away from the projection.
Players ruled out or on injured reserve are removed when the page loads, and a back needs a few games of recent usage before the model projects him. Quarterback rushing yards are not covered. Backups promoted by an injury keep their old projection, so adjust those yourself.
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