A rushing yards projection for every running back on this week's slate, ranked. Each number is the model's median: the back should finish above it about half the time and below it about half the time.
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| Player | Matchup | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Bijan RobinsonRB | ATL vs BAL | 88.2yds |
| James CookRB | BUF vs LA | 81.4yds |
| Jonathan TaylorRB | IND vs PIT | 76.0yds |
| Aaron JonesRB | MIN vs NO | 70.2yds |
| Derrick HenryRB | BAL vs ATL | 69.5yds |
| Jahmyr GibbsRB | DET vs ARI | 69.4yds |
| Jaylen WarrenRB | PIT vs IND | 63.3yds |
| Breece HallRB | NYJ vs CLE | 63.0yds |
| Bucky IrvingRB | TB vs DAL | 62.8yds |
| Quinshon JudkinsRB | CLE vs NYJ | 59.1yds |
| Kyren WilliamsRB | LA vs BUF | 57.9yds |
| Bhayshul TutenRB | JAX vs PHI | 57.3yds |
| Chase BrownRB | CIN vs MIA | 54.6yds |
| Christian McCaffreyRB | SF vs SEA | 54.6yds |
| Ashton JeantyRB | LV vs NE | 53.7yds |
| Jeremiyah LoveRB | ARI vs DET | 52.4yds |
| Kyle MonangaiRB | CHI vs GB | 52.1yds |
| Javonte WilliamsRB | DAL vs TB | 51.2yds |
| J.K. DobbinsRB | DEN vs LAC | 51.0yds |
| Cam SkatteboRB | NYG vs WAS | 51.0yds |
| Omarion HamptonRB | LAC vs DEN | 50.4yds |
| D'Andre SwiftRB | CHI vs GB | 48.9yds |
| Tony PollardRB | TEN vs HOU | 48.7yds |
| TreVeyon HendersonRB | NE vs LV | 46.9yds |
| Emanuel WilsonRB | SEA vs SF | 44.9yds |
| Jacory Croskey-MerrittRB | WAS vs NYG | 42.7yds |
| Rhamondre StevensonRB | NE vs LV | 41.1yds |
| Brian RobinsonRB | ATL vs BAL | 36.7yds |
| Saquon BarkleyRB | PHI vs JAX | 36.3yds |
| Ollie Gordon IIRB | MIA vs CIN | 31.6yds |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr.RB | JAX vs PHI | 31.6yds |
| Woody MarksRB | HOU vs TEN | 31.0yds |
| Blake CorumRB | LA vs BUF | 30.4yds |
| Rachaad WhiteRB | WAS vs NYG | 27.8yds |
| David MontgomeryRB | HOU vs TEN | 27.6yds |
| Braelon AllenRB | NYJ vs CLE | 27.0yds |
| Keaton MitchellRB | LAC vs DEN | 24.5yds |
| Najee HarrisRB | NYG vs WAS | 24.2yds |
| Rico DowdleRB | PIT vs IND | 22.9yds |
| Alvin KamaraRB | NO vs MIN | 22.8yds |
| Tank BigsbyRB | PHI vs JAX | 20.5yds |
| Kaelon BlackRB | SF vs SEA | 20.3yds |
| Kaleb JohnsonRB | GB vs CHI | 20.1yds |
| Tyler AllgeierRB | ARI vs DET | 20.1yds |
| RJ HarveyRB | DEN vs LAC | 20.0yds |
| Devin SingletaryRB | NYG vs WAS | 18.4yds |
| MarShawn LloydRB | GB vs CHI | 18.3yds |
| Mike Washington Jr.RB | LV vs NE | 18.2yds |
| Kendre MillerRB | NO vs MIN | 18.1yds |
| Tyjae SpearsRB | TEN vs HOU | 17.3yds |
| Austin EkelerRB | WAS vs NYG | 16.9yds |
| Kenny GainwellRB | TB vs DAL | 13.6yds |
| Bam KnightRB | ARI vs DET | 13.5yds |
| Tyrone Tracy Jr.RB | NYG vs WAS | 11.2yds |
| Sean TuckerRB | TB vs DAL | 10.8yds |
| Jaylen WrightRB | MIA vs CIN | 10.2yds |
| Kimani VidalRB | LAC vs DEN | 10.1yds |
| Chris BrooksRB | GB vs CHI | 9.9yds |
| George HolaniRB | SEA vs SF | 9.0yds |
| Samaje PerineRB | CIN vs MIA | 8.7yds |
| Ray DavisRB | BUF vs LA | 8.7yds |
| Ty JohnsonRB | BUF vs LA | 2.9yds |
An XGBoost model is trained on past NFL running back games and asked for the median rushing yards in the next one. It reads the back's carries and rushing yards over his last three, six and ten games, using prior games only, and the rushing yards his opponent has allowed over its recent games. It is retrained on every run, so each week's results feed the next projection.
No sportsbook line is an input. The model never sees the market, which is what makes the comparison with your book's number meaningful: when the two disagree, they disagree for independent reasons.
Rushing yards are one of the noisiest markets in football. A back's recent average on its own predicts his next game worse than simply guessing the league average does, because game script decides so much: a team that falls behind early stops running, and a single 50-yard carry can make a quiet afternoon look like a big one.
That is why this page publishes a median rather than a pick. A back projected for 60 yards finishing anywhere from 30 to 100 is an ordinary week. The projection is most useful where it sits well away from the line your book is hanging, not where it is a yard or two either side.
Where a sportsbook line has been logged for a player, the board shows it with the side the projection falls on. Books post player lines late in the week, so most rows show a dash until close to kickoff. Every side taken against a real line is graded on the performance page, wins and losses alike. The model has not yet been proven against real sportsbook prices, so these are projections, not picks.
Players ruled out or placed on injured reserve disappear from the board when you load the page. A backup's projection still reflects his old role, though, so when a starter is ruled out, adjust his replacement upward yourself. The NFL injury report lists who is out, game by game.
An XGBoost model trained on past running back games projects the median rushing yards for each back. It uses his carries and rushing yards over his last three, six and ten games, prior games only, and the rushing yards his opponent has allowed recently. Sportsbook lines are never an input.
It is the number the back should beat about half the time. A 65-yard projection is not a promise of 65 yards; it says the over and the under at 65 are roughly a coin flip. The useful signal is a book line several yards away from the projection.
Players ruled out or on injured reserve are removed when the page loads, and a back needs a few games of recent usage before the model projects him. Quarterback rushing yards are not covered. Backups promoted by an injury keep their old projection, so adjust those yourself.
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