A receiving yards projection for every wide receiver, tight end and pass-catching back on this week's slate, ranked. Each number is the model's median: the player should finish above it about half the time.
191 players across 30 games · rebuilt daily · inactives removed automatically
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| Player | Matchup | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Amon-Ra St. BrownWR | DET vs NYJ | 87.0yds |
| Chris OlaveWR | NO vs LV | 72.0yds |
| Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR | SEA vs WAS | 70.4yds |
| Ja'Marr ChaseWR | CIN vs PIT | 67.3yds |
| Garrett WilsonWR | NYJ vs DET | 65.4yds |
| CeeDee LambWR | DAL vs BAL | 65.2yds |
| Trey McBrideTE | ARI vs SF | 62.7yds |
| Zay FlowersWR | BAL vs DAL | 60.8yds |
| Justin JeffersonWR | MIN vs TB | 60.3yds |
| Malik NabersWR | NYG vs TEN | 60.2yds |
| Jameson WilliamsWR | DET vs NYJ | 57.6yds |
| Tetairoa McMillanWR | CAR vs CLE | 56.9yds |
| Michael WilsonWR | ARI vs SF | 56.6yds |
| George PickensWR | DAL vs BAL | 55.4yds |
| Tee HigginsWR | CIN vs PIT | 55.1yds |
| George KittleTE | SF vs ARI | 54.8yds |
| Jaylen WaddleWR | DEN vs LA | 54.7yds |
| Davante AdamsWR | LA vs DEN | 54.4yds |
| DeVonta SmithWR | PHI vs CHI | 50.6yds |
| Wan'Dale RobinsonWR | TEN vs NYG | 50.4yds |
| Terry McLaurinWR | WAS vs SEA | 50.1yds |
| Rashee RiceWR | KC vs MIA | 48.8yds |
| Sam LaPortaTE | DET vs NYJ | 48.2yds |
| Jalen CokerWR | CAR vs CLE | 47.7yds |
| Dalton KincaidTE | BUF vs LAC | 47.5yds |
| Parker WashingtonWR | JAX vs NE | 46.9yds |
| Travis KelceTE | KC vs MIA | 46.6yds |
| Stefon DiggsWR | WAS vs SEA | 45.2yds |
| Alec PierceWR | IND vs HOU | 45.1yds |
| Mike EvansWR | SF vs ARI | 44.5yds |
| Devaughn VeleWR | NO vs LV | 44.2yds |
| DK MetcalfWR | PIT vs CIN | 43.6yds |
| Adonai MitchellWR | NYJ vs DET | 42.1yds |
| Josh DownsWR | IND vs HOU | 40.2yds |
| Dalton SchultzTE | HOU vs IND | 39.6yds |
| Brian Thomas Jr.WR | JAX vs NE | 39.3yds |
| Juwan JohnsonTE | NO vs LV | 39.0yds |
| Luther Burden IIIWR | CHI vs PHI | 38.5yds |
| Tyler WarrenTE | IND vs HOU | 38.5yds |
| Rome OdunzeWR | CHI vs PHI | 36.9yds |
| Ladd McConkeyWR | LAC vs BUF | 36.6yds |
| Tre TuckerWR | LV vs NO | 35.7yds |
| Deebo Samuel Sr.WR | SF vs ARI | 35.6yds |
| Khalil ShakirWR | BUF vs LAC | 34.1yds |
| Emeka EgbukaWR | TB vs MIN | 33.4yds |
| Dallas GoedertTE | PHI vs CHI | 33.3yds |
| Jakobi MeyersWR | JAX vs NE | 33.1yds |
| Isaiah LikelyTE | NYG vs TEN | 32.8yds |
| Courtland SuttonWR | DEN vs LA | 32.5yds |
| Harold Fannin Jr.TE | CLE vs CAR | 32.1yds |
| Xavier WorthyWR | KC vs MIA | 32.1yds |
| DJ MooreWR | BUF vs LAC | 31.7yds |
| Hunter HenryTE | NE vs JAX | 31.6yds |
| Elic AyomanorWR | TEN vs NYG | 31.6yds |
| Colston LovelandTE | CHI vs PHI | 31.5yds |
| Cade OttonTE | TB vs MIN | 31.3yds |
| Christian McCaffreyRB | SF vs ARI | 31.1yds |
| Quentin JohnstonWR | LAC vs BUF | 31.0yds |
| Keenan AllenWR | IND vs HOU | 31.0yds |
| Chris Godwin Jr.WR | TB vs MIN | 30.8yds |
| Romeo DoubsWR | NE vs JAX | 29.9yds |
| Mark AndrewsTE | BAL vs DAL | 29.3yds |
| Jahmyr GibbsRB | DET vs NYJ | 28.7yds |
| Pat BryantWR | DEN vs LA | 28.7yds |
| Dontayvion WicksWR | PHI vs CHI | 28.2yds |
| Darnell MooneyWR | NYG vs TEN | 27.8yds |
| Calvin RidleyWR | TEN vs NYG | 27.4yds |
| T.J. HockensonTE | MIN vs TB | 27.1yds |
| Ryan FlournoyWR | DAL vs BAL | 26.9yds |
| Kalif RaymondWR | CHI vs PHI | 26.8yds |
| Jauan JenningsWR | MIN vs TB | 26.6yds |
| Xavier HutchinsonWR | HOU vs IND | 26.2yds |
| Mack HollinsWR | NE vs JAX | 26.1yds |
| Evan EngramTE | DEN vs LA | 26.1yds |
| Keon ColemanWR | BUF vs LAC | 25.9yds |
| Pat FreiermuthTE | PIT vs CIN | 25.9yds |
| Michael PittmanWR | PIT vs CIN | 24.7yds |
| Brenton StrangeTE | JAX vs NE | 24.5yds |
| Mike GesickiTE | CIN vs PIT | 23.6yds |
| Michael MayerTE | LV vs NO | 23.0yds |
| De'Von AchaneRB | MIA vs KC | 22.6yds |
| Cooper KuppWR | SEA vs WAS | 22.3yds |
| Kayshon BoutteWR | HOU vs IND | 22.3yds |
| Theo JohnsonTE | NYG vs TEN | 22.1yds |
| Jordan AddisonWR | MIN vs TB | 21.4yds |
| Jerry JeudyWR | CLE vs CAR | 21.2yds |
| Isaiah WilliamsWR | NYJ vs DET | 20.9yds |
| Greg DulcichTE | MIA vs KC | 20.8yds |
| Ashton JeantyRB | LV vs NO | 20.4yds |
| Marquise BrownWR | PHI vs CHI | 20.4yds |
| Darren WallerTE | CAR vs CLE | 20.4yds |
| Demarcus RobinsonWR | SF vs ARI | 19.7yds |
| Tyquan ThorntonWR | KC vs MIA | 19.5yds |
| Colby ParkinsonTE | LA vs DEN | 19.3yds |
| Malik WashingtonWR | MIA vs KC | 19.2yds |
| DeMario DouglasWR | NE vs JAX | 18.6yds |
| Roman WilsonWR | PIT vs CIN | 18.5yds |
| Terrance FergusonTE | LA vs DEN | 18.4yds |
| Kenneth Walker IIIRB | KC vs MIA | 18.3yds |
| Tre HarrisWR | LAC vs BUF | 18.3yds |
| Tyler HigbeeTE | LA vs DEN | 18.2yds |
| Jake FergusonTE | DAL vs BAL | 18.1yds |
| AJ BarnerTE | SEA vs WAS | 18.0yds |
| Rashod BatemanWR | BAL vs DAL | 17.2yds |
| Rashid ShaheedWR | SEA vs WAS | 16.9yds |
| Jalen NailorWR | LV vs NO | 16.7yds |
| Xavier LegetteWR | CAR vs CLE | 16.6yds |
| Troy FranklinWR | DEN vs LA | 16.3yds |
| Kendrick BourneWR | ARI vs SF | 15.9yds |
| Bucky IrvingRB | TB vs MIN | 15.5yds |
| Gunnar HelmTE | TEN vs NYG | 15.3yds |
| Marvin Harrison Jr.WR | ARI vs SF | 15.3yds |
| Chase BrownRB | CIN vs PIT | 15.2yds |
| Jonathan TaylorRB | IND vs HOU | 15.0yds |
| Josh PalmerWR | BUF vs LAC | 15.0yds |
| Dawson KnoxTE | BUF vs LAC | 14.8yds |
| Breece HallRB | NYJ vs DET | 14.6yds |
| Oronde Gadsden IITE | LAC vs BUF | 14.6yds |
| Rhamondre StevensonRB | NE vs JAX | 14.5yds |
| John Metchie IIIWR | CAR vs CLE | 14.3yds |
| Josh OliverTE | MIN vs TB | 14.2yds |
| David NjokuTE | LAC vs BUF | 14.0yds |
| Jaylen WarrenRB | PIT vs CIN | 13.6yds |
| Chris MooreWR | BAL vs DAL | 13.4yds |
| Chimere DikeWR | TEN vs NYG | 13.3yds |
| Cam SkatteboRB | NYG vs TEN | 13.3yds |
| Cole KmetTE | CHI vs PHI | 13.2yds |
| Tyjae SpearsRB | TEN vs NYG | 13.1yds |
| Tutu AtwellWR | LA vs DEN | 13.1yds |
| Travis EtienneRB | NO vs LV | 13.0yds |
| RJ HarveyRB | DEN vs LA | 12.8yds |
| Isaac TeSlaaWR | DET vs NYJ | 12.8yds |
| Jack BechWR | LV vs NO | 12.5yds |
| Javonte WilliamsRB | DAL vs BAL | 12.4yds |
| Kyren WilliamsRB | LA vs DEN | 11.8yds |
| Tyrone Tracy Jr.RB | NYG vs TEN | 11.7yds |
| Kenny GainwellRB | TB vs MIN | 11.6yds |
| Alvin KamaraRB | NO vs LV | 11.4yds |
| Andrei IosivasWR | CIN vs PIT | 11.4yds |
| Treylon BurksWR | WAS vs SEA | 11.1yds |
| Lil'Jordan HumphreyWR | DEN vs LA | 11.1yds |
| Aaron JonesRB | MIN vs TB | 11.0yds |
| Darnell WashingtonTE | PIT vs CIN | 10.8yds |
| James CookRB | BUF vs LAC | 10.7yds |
| Darius CooperWR | PHI vs CHI | 10.5yds |
| Quinshon JudkinsRB | CLE vs CAR | 10.4yds |
| Tez JohnsonWR | TB vs MIN | 10.4yds |
| Isaiah BondWR | CLE vs CAR | 9.8yds |
| Tommy TrembleTE | CAR vs CLE | 9.8yds |
| D'Andre SwiftRB | CHI vs PHI | 9.7yds |
| Omarion HamptonRB | LAC vs BUF | 9.7yds |
| Erick AllTE | CIN vs PIT | 9.6yds |
| Jaylin NoelWR | HOU vs IND | 9.5yds |
| Daniel BellingerTE | TEN vs NYG | 8.9yds |
| Tyler BadieRB | DEN vs LA | 8.8yds |
| Saquon BarkleyRB | PHI vs CHI | 8.7yds |
| Jahdae WalkerWR | CHI vs PHI | 8.7yds |
| Marvin Mims Jr.WR | DEN vs LA | 8.7yds |
| Chuba HubbardRB | CAR vs CLE | 8.5yds |
| Noah FantTE | NO vs LV | 8.5yds |
| Samaje PerineRB | CIN vs PIT | 8.3yds |
| Devin SingletaryRB | NYG vs TEN | 8.2yds |
| Dyami BrownWR | WAS vs SEA | 8.1yds |
| Adam TrautmanTE | DEN vs LA | 8.0yds |
| Noah GrayTE | KC vs MIA | 7.6yds |
| Brock WrightTE | DET vs NYJ | 7.5yds |
| Rachaad WhiteRB | WAS vs SEA | 7.2yds |
| Johnny MundtTE | PHI vs CHI | 6.9yds |
| Woody MarksRB | HOU vs IND | 6.9yds |
| Elijah HigginsTE | ARI vs SF | 6.8yds |
| Tony PollardRB | TEN vs NYG | 6.7yds |
| Jeremy RuckertTE | NYJ vs DET | 6.7yds |
| Drew SampleTE | CIN vs PIT | 6.7yds |
| Ben SinnottTE | WAS vs SEA | 6.6yds |
| Foster MoreauTE | HOU vs IND | 6.3yds |
| Davis AllenTE | LA vs DEN | 6.2yds |
| Kyle MonangaiRB | CHI vs PHI | 6.2yds |
| John BatesTE | WAS vs SEA | 6.2yds |
| Nate AdkinsTE | DEN vs LA | 5.7yds |
| Cade StoverTE | HOU vs IND | 5.7yds |
| Mitchell EvansTE | CAR vs CLE | 5.6yds |
| Bam KnightRB | ARI vs SF | 5.1yds |
| Konata MumpfieldWR | LA vs DEN | 4.8yds |
| KaVontae TurpinWR | DAL vs BAL | 4.7yds |
| Brashard SmithRB | KC vs MIA | 4.5yds |
| Kyle WilliamsWR | NE vs JAX | 4.5yds |
| David MontgomeryRB | HOU vs IND | 4.4yds |
| Ian ThomasTE | LV vs NO | 4.2yds |
| Hunter LongTE | ARI vs SF | 2.1yds |
| Najee HarrisRB | NYG vs TEN | 1.7yds |
| Ameer AbdullahRB | JAX vs NE | 1.5yds |
An XGBoost model is trained on past NFL receiving games and asked for the median receiving yards in the next one. It reads the player's targets and receiving yards over his last three, six and ten games, using prior games only, and the receiving yards his opponent has allowed over its recent games. It is retrained on every run, so each week's results feed the next projection.
No sportsbook line is an input. The model never sees the market, which is what makes the comparison with your book's number meaningful: when the two disagree, they disagree for independent reasons.
Receiving yards follow targets. A receiver who draws eight or nine looks a game has a floor that a player seeing three never will, however talented. That is why the projection leans on recent target volume rather than on name value, and why a tight end in a two-receiver offense can outrank a better-known wideout.
Yards per catch are the noisy part. One busted coverage can turn a 30-yard day into a 90-yard one, so a receiver projected for 55 yards finishing anywhere from 20 to 100 is an ordinary week. The projection is most useful where it sits well away from the line your book is hanging.
Where a sportsbook line has been logged for a player, the board shows it with the side the projection falls on. Books post player lines late in the week, so most rows show a dash until close to kickoff. Every side taken against a real line is graded on the performance page, wins and losses alike. The model has not yet been proven against real sportsbook prices, so these are projections, not picks.
Players ruled out or placed on injured reserve disappear from the board when you load the page. The targets a missing receiver leaves behind are not reassigned automatically, so when a WR1 is ruled out, nudge the rest of that passing game up yourself. The NFL injury report lists who is out, game by game.
An XGBoost model trained on past receiving games projects the median receiving yards for each player. It uses his targets and receiving yards over his last three, six and ten games, prior games only, and the receiving yards his opponent has allowed recently. Sportsbook lines are never an input.
Wide receivers, tight ends and running backs with recent passing-game usage, filterable by position. A player needs a few games of targets before the model projects him, and anyone ruled out or on injured reserve is removed when the page loads. Quarterbacks and passing yards are not covered.
It is the number the player should beat about half the time. A 60-yard projection says the over and the under at 60 are roughly a coin flip, not that he will catch for exactly 60. The useful signal is a book line several yards away from the projection.
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