A receiving yards projection for every wide receiver, tight end and pass-catching back on this week's slate, ranked. Each number is the model's median: the player should finish above it about half the time.
216 players across 30 games · rebuilt daily · inactives removed automatically
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| Player | Matchup | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Puka NacuaWR | LA vs BUF | 87.8yds |
| Chris OlaveWR | NO vs MIN | 81.3yds |
| Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR | SEA vs SF | 81.0yds |
| CeeDee LambWR | DAL vs TB | 77.8yds |
| Ja'Marr ChaseWR | CIN vs MIA | 74.6yds |
| Drake LondonWR | ATL vs BAL | 74.2yds |
| Amon-Ra St. BrownWR | DET vs ARI | 74.0yds |
| Zay FlowersWR | BAL vs ATL | 68.5yds |
| Nico CollinsWR | HOU vs TEN | 68.0yds |
| Brock BowersTE | LV vs NE | 63.9yds |
| Carnell TateWR | TEN vs HOU | 62.9yds |
| Jameson WilliamsWR | DET vs ARI | 62.6yds |
| Michael WilsonWR | ARI vs DET | 61.8yds |
| Garrett WilsonWR | NYJ vs CLE | 60.9yds |
| Tee HigginsWR | CIN vs MIA | 60.6yds |
| Malik NabersWR | NYG vs WAS | 60.4yds |
| Davante AdamsWR | LA vs BUF | 57.8yds |
| DeVonta SmithWR | PHI vs JAX | 57.8yds |
| Trey McBrideTE | ARI vs DET | 57.2yds |
| Christian WatsonWR | GB vs CHI | 57.1yds |
| George PickensWR | DAL vs TB | 56.4yds |
| Justin JeffersonWR | MIN vs NO | 56.0yds |
| Sam LaPortaTE | DET vs ARI | 55.8yds |
| Parker WashingtonWR | JAX vs PHI | 55.5yds |
| DK MetcalfWR | PIT vs IND | 54.9yds |
| Denzel BostonWR | CLE vs NYJ | 54.5yds |
| George KittleTE | SF vs SEA | 53.8yds |
| Terry McLaurinWR | WAS vs NYG | 51.9yds |
| Rome OdunzeWR | CHI vs GB | 49.5yds |
| Wan'Dale RobinsonWR | TEN vs HOU | 47.4yds |
| Luther Burden IIIWR | CHI vs GB | 47.3yds |
| Josh DownsWR | IND vs PIT | 47.0yds |
| Jaylen WaddleWR | DEN vs LAC | 46.8yds |
| Juwan JohnsonTE | NO vs MIN | 44.5yds |
| Devaughn VeleWR | NO vs MIN | 42.6yds |
| Adonai MitchellWR | NYJ vs CLE | 42.1yds |
| Mike EvansWR | SF vs SEA | 41.9yds |
| Matthew GoldenWR | GB vs CHI | 41.7yds |
| Harold Fannin Jr.TE | CLE vs NYJ | 41.1yds |
| Courtland SuttonWR | DEN vs LAC | 40.9yds |
| Romeo DoubsWR | NE vs LV | 40.3yds |
| Keenan AllenWR | IND vs PIT | 40.0yds |
| Jordan AddisonWR | MIN vs NO | 39.0yds |
| Keon ColemanWR | BUF vs LA | 39.0yds |
| Khalil ShakirWR | BUF vs LA | 38.4yds |
| Jakobi MeyersWR | JAX vs PHI | 38.4yds |
| Tre TuckerWR | LV vs NE | 37.9yds |
| Colston LovelandTE | CHI vs GB | 37.8yds |
| Tyler WarrenTE | IND vs PIT | 37.2yds |
| Brenton StrangeTE | JAX vs PHI | 37.1yds |
| Chris Godwin Jr.WR | TB vs DAL | 36.9yds |
| Stefon DiggsWR | WAS vs NYG | 36.9yds |
| T.J. HockensonTE | MIN vs NO | 36.9yds |
| Dalton SchultzTE | HOU vs TEN | 36.2yds |
| Cade OttonTE | TB vs DAL | 36.1yds |
| Roman WilsonWR | PIT vs IND | 35.8yds |
| KC ConcepcionWR | CLE vs NYJ | 35.8yds |
| Emeka EgbukaWR | TB vs DAL | 35.6yds |
| Mike GesickiTE | CIN vs MIA | 35.5yds |
| Kyle PittsTE | ATL vs BAL | 35.3yds |
| Tre HarrisWR | LAC vs DEN | 35.2yds |
| Jahmyr GibbsRB | DET vs ARI | 35.0yds |
| Malik WashingtonWR | MIA vs CIN | 35.0yds |
| Isaiah LikelyTE | NYG vs WAS | 34.8yds |
| Dallas GoedertTE | PHI vs JAX | 33.3yds |
| Quentin JohnstonWR | LAC vs DEN | 32.8yds |
| Dontayvion WicksWR | PHI vs JAX | 32.6yds |
| Mark AndrewsTE | BAL vs ATL | 32.4yds |
| Isaac TeSlaaWR | DET vs ARI | 32.3yds |
| Dalton KincaidTE | BUF vs LA | 32.3yds |
| Brian Thomas Jr.WR | JAX vs PHI | 32.1yds |
| Ryan FlournoyWR | DAL vs TB | 32.0yds |
| Hunter HenryTE | NE vs LV | 31.9yds |
| Tucker KraftTE | GB vs CHI | 31.9yds |
| Mack HollinsWR | NE vs LV | 31.1yds |
| Xavier HutchinsonWR | HOU vs TEN | 30.7yds |
| Pat FreiermuthTE | PIT vs IND | 30.4yds |
| Tyler HigbeeTE | LA vs BUF | 29.8yds |
| Zach ErtzTE | PHI vs JAX | 29.6yds |
| Greg DulcichTE | MIA vs CIN | 29.2yds |
| Michael MayerTE | LV vs NE | 29.2yds |
| Kenyon SadiqTE | NYJ vs CLE | 29.1yds |
| Christian McCaffreyRB | SF vs SEA | 28.6yds |
| Ladd McConkeyWR | LAC vs DEN | 28.3yds |
| DJ MooreWR | BUF vs LA | 27.8yds |
| Ted Hurst IIIWR | TB vs DAL | 26.9yds |
| Kalif RaymondWR | CHI vs GB | 26.5yds |
| Rashod BatemanWR | BAL vs ATL | 26.4yds |
| Deebo Samuel Sr.WR | SF vs SEA | 26.3yds |
| Dohnte MeyersWR | CIN vs MIA | 26.0yds |
| Malachi FieldsWR | NYG vs WAS | 25.6yds |
| Isaiah WilliamsWR | NYJ vs CLE | 25.5yds |
| Kyren WilliamsRB | LA vs BUF | 25.1yds |
| Pat BryantWR | DEN vs LAC | 24.9yds |
| Antonio WilliamsWR | WAS vs NYG | 24.9yds |
| Theo JohnsonTE | NYG vs WAS | 23.8yds |
| Marvin Harrison Jr.WR | ARI vs DET | 23.8yds |
| Jerry JeudyWR | CLE vs NYJ | 23.4yds |
| Oronde Gadsden IITE | LAC vs DEN | 23.4yds |
| Makai LemonWR | PHI vs JAX | 22.7yds |
| Bijan RobinsonRB | ATL vs BAL | 22.6yds |
| Chig OkonkwoTE | WAS vs NYG | 22.4yds |
| Cooper KuppWR | SEA vs SF | 22.3yds |
| Ashton JeantyRB | LV vs NE | 22.2yds |
| Kayshon BoutteWR | HOU vs TEN | 21.6yds |
| Elic AyomanorWR | TEN vs HOU | 21.5yds |
| Michael PittmanWR | PIT vs IND | 21.3yds |
| Jauan JenningsWR | MIN vs NO | 21.1yds |
| Kendrick BourneWR | ARI vs DET | 20.3yds |
| Rashid ShaheedWR | SEA vs SF | 20.2yds |
| Jahan DotsonWR | ATL vs BAL | 20.0yds |
| AJ BarnerTE | SEA vs SF | 20.0yds |
| Kenny GainwellRB | TB vs DAL | 19.8yds |
| Calvin RidleyWR | TEN vs HOU | 19.2yds |
| DeMario DouglasWR | NE vs LV | 19.1yds |
| Jake FergusonTE | DAL vs TB | 19.1yds |
| Chase BrownRB | CIN vs MIA | 19.1yds |
| Chris BellWR | MIA vs CIN | 19.0yds |
| Jaylen WarrenRB | PIT vs IND | 19.0yds |
| Jared WayneWR | HOU vs TEN | 19.0yds |
| Konata MumpfieldWR | LA vs BUF | 18.1yds |
| Darnell MooneyWR | NYG vs WAS | 18.0yds |
| Kevin Austin Jr.WR | NO vs MIN | 17.9yds |
| Darnell WashingtonTE | PIT vs IND | 17.7yds |
| Jaylin NoelWR | HOU vs TEN | 17.1yds |
| Josh PalmerWR | BUF vs LA | 17.0yds |
| Colby ParkinsonTE | LA vs BUF | 16.9yds |
| Troy FranklinWR | DEN vs LAC | 16.9yds |
| Laquon TreadwellWR | IND vs PIT | 16.8yds |
| Marquise BrownWR | PHI vs JAX | 16.5yds |
| Darius CooperWR | PHI vs JAX | 16.4yds |
| Devontez WalkerWR | BAL vs ATL | 16.1yds |
| Aaron JonesRB | MIN vs NO | 16.0yds |
| Tez JohnsonWR | TB vs DAL | 15.9yds |
| Breece HallRB | NYJ vs CLE | 15.9yds |
| Tory HortonWR | SEA vs SF | 15.7yds |
| Dawson KnoxTE | BUF vs LA | 15.7yds |
| Chris MooreWR | BAL vs ATL | 15.5yds |
| Rico DowdleRB | PIT vs IND | 15.3yds |
| Quinshon JudkinsRB | CLE vs NYJ | 15.3yds |
| Javonte WilliamsRB | DAL vs TB | 14.8yds |
| Jalen NailorWR | LV vs NE | 14.8yds |
| Rhamondre StevensonRB | NE vs LV | 14.7yds |
| Jonathan TaylorRB | IND vs PIT | 14.7yds |
| Cam SkatteboRB | NYG vs WAS | 14.7yds |
| RJ HarveyRB | DEN vs LAC | 14.3yds |
| Alvin KamaraRB | NO vs MIN | 14.1yds |
| Evan EngramTE | DEN vs LAC | 13.8yds |
| Dyami BrownWR | WAS vs NYG | 13.7yds |
| Gunnar HelmTE | TEN vs HOU | 13.4yds |
| D'Andre SwiftRB | CHI vs GB | 13.0yds |
| Austin EkelerRB | WAS vs NYG | 12.9yds |
| Mitchell TinsleyWR | CIN vs MIA | 12.7yds |
| Austin HooperTE | ATL vs BAL | 12.7yds |
| Bucky IrvingRB | TB vs DAL | 12.7yds |
| Tutu AtwellWR | LA vs BUF | 12.6yds |
| Noah FantTE | NO vs MIN | 12.5yds |
| Jelani WoodsTE | NYJ vs CLE | 12.3yds |
| Jonnu SmithTE | GB vs CHI | 12.0yds |
| Tyler BadieRB | DEN vs LAC | 11.7yds |
| Treylon BurksWR | WAS vs NYG | 11.3yds |
| Tyjae SpearsRB | TEN vs HOU | 10.6yds |
| Kyle WilliamsWR | NE vs LV | 10.6yds |
| Jeremy RuckertTE | NYJ vs CLE | 10.5yds |
| Erick AllTE | CIN vs MIA | 10.3yds |
| Jalen TolbertWR | MIA vs CIN | 9.9yds |
| Rachaad WhiteRB | WAS vs NYG | 9.8yds |
| Cole KmetTE | CHI vs GB | 9.7yds |
| Davis AllenTE | LA vs BUF | 9.7yds |
| Isaiah BondWR | CLE vs NYJ | 9.6yds |
| Brandin CooksWR | SF vs SEA | 9.5yds |
| Ty JohnsonRB | BUF vs LA | 9.1yds |
| Saquon BarkleyRB | PHI vs JAX | 8.9yds |
| Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR | LAC vs DEN | 8.9yds |
| Drew SampleTE | CIN vs MIA | 8.8yds |
| Mo Alie-CoxTE | IND vs PIT | 8.8yds |
| Tanner HudsonTE | CIN vs MIA | 8.7yds |
| Omarion HamptonRB | LAC vs DEN | 8.7yds |
| Olamide ZaccheausWR | ATL vs BAL | 8.7yds |
| Jeremiyah LoveRB | ARI vs DET | 8.7yds |
| Foster MoreauTE | HOU vs TEN | 8.7yds |
| Brevin JordanTE | HOU vs TEN | 8.5yds |
| MarShawn LloydRB | GB vs CHI | 8.5yds |
| Raheim SandersRB | CLE vs NYJ | 7.9yds |
| Josh CameronWR | JAX vs PHI | 7.7yds |
| Nate AdkinsTE | DEN vs LAC | 7.7yds |
| Brock WrightTE | DET vs ARI | 7.6yds |
| Daniel BellingerTE | TEN vs HOU | 7.6yds |
| James CookRB | BUF vs LA | 7.5yds |
| Ashton DulinWR | IND vs PIT | 7.5yds |
| David MontgomeryRB | HOU vs TEN | 7.0yds |
| Adam TrautmanTE | DEN vs LAC | 7.0yds |
| Bryce LanceWR | NO vs MIN | 6.9yds |
| Ian ThomasTE | LV vs NE | 6.8yds |
| Marvin Mims Jr.WR | DEN vs LAC | 6.7yds |
| Elijah HigginsTE | ARI vs DET | 6.4yds |
| Woody MarksRB | HOU vs TEN | 6.4yds |
| Keaton MitchellRB | LAC vs DEN | 6.2yds |
| Will ShipleyRB | PHI vs JAX | 6.2yds |
| Zachariah BranchWR | ATL vs BAL | 6.2yds |
| Devin SingletaryRB | NYG vs WAS | 6.1yds |
| Tyler AllgeierRB | ARI vs DET | 6.0yds |
| Tony PollardRB | TEN vs HOU | 6.0yds |
| Cade StoverTE | HOU vs TEN | 6.0yds |
| Skyy MooreWR | GB vs CHI | 5.7yds |
| Cody WhiteWR | LV vs NE | 5.7yds |
| Samaje PerineRB | CIN vs MIA | 5.7yds |
| Braelon AllenRB | NYJ vs CLE | 5.7yds |
| Efton Chism IIIWR | NE vs LV | 5.6yds |
| Chimere DikeWR | TEN vs HOU | 5.6yds |
| Bam KnightRB | ARI vs DET | 4.8yds |
| Ben SinnottTE | WAS vs NYG | 4.5yds |
| Kyle MonangaiRB | CHI vs GB | 3.6yds |
| Brevyn Spann-FordTE | DAL vs TB | 2.9yds |
| Tyrone Tracy Jr.RB | NYG vs WAS | 2.1yds |
| Greg DortchWR | BUF vs LA | 1.9yds |
An XGBoost model is trained on past NFL receiving games and asked for the median receiving yards in the next one. It reads the player's targets and receiving yards over his last three, six and ten games, using prior games only, and the receiving yards his opponent has allowed over its recent games. It is retrained on every run, so each week's results feed the next projection.
No sportsbook line is an input. The model never sees the market, which is what makes the comparison with your book's number meaningful: when the two disagree, they disagree for independent reasons.
Receiving yards follow targets. A receiver who draws eight or nine looks a game has a floor that a player seeing three never will, however talented. That is why the projection leans on recent target volume rather than on name value, and why a tight end in a two-receiver offense can outrank a better-known wideout.
Yards per catch are the noisy part. One busted coverage can turn a 30-yard day into a 90-yard one, so a receiver projected for 55 yards finishing anywhere from 20 to 100 is an ordinary week. The projection is most useful where it sits well away from the line your book is hanging.
Where a sportsbook line has been logged for a player, the board shows it with the side the projection falls on. Books post player lines late in the week, so most rows show a dash until close to kickoff. Every side taken against a real line is graded on the performance page, wins and losses alike. The model has not yet been proven against real sportsbook prices, so these are projections, not picks.
Players ruled out or placed on injured reserve disappear from the board when you load the page. The targets a missing receiver leaves behind are not reassigned automatically, so when a WR1 is ruled out, nudge the rest of that passing game up yourself. The NFL injury report lists who is out, game by game.
An XGBoost model trained on past receiving games projects the median receiving yards for each player. It uses his targets and receiving yards over his last three, six and ten games, prior games only, and the receiving yards his opponent has allowed recently. Sportsbook lines are never an input.
Wide receivers, tight ends and running backs with recent passing-game usage, filterable by position. A player needs a few games of targets before the model projects him, and anyone ruled out or on injured reserve is removed when the page loads. Quarterbacks and passing yards are not covered.
It is the number the player should beat about half the time. A 60-yard projection says the over and the under at 60 are roughly a coin flip, not that he will catch for exactly 60. The useful signal is a book line several yards away from the projection.
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