Receiving yards projections for the wide receivers, tight ends and pass-catching backs on this week's slate, ranked. Each number is the model's median: the player should finish above it about half the time.
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Every player on this week's slate with the model's median projection, the book line once one is posted and the side it falls on, rebuilt daily with inactives removed. See plans, or read how the projections are built below.
See plans →An XGBoost model is trained on past NFL receiving games and asked for the median receiving yards in the next one. It reads the player's targets and receiving yards over his last three, six and ten games, using prior games only, and the receiving yards his opponent has allowed over its recent games. It is retrained on every run, so each week's results feed the next projection.
No sportsbook line is an input. The model never sees the market, which is what makes the comparison with a posted line meaningful: when the two disagree, they disagree for independent reasons.
Receiving yards follow targets. A receiver who draws eight or nine looks a game has a floor that a player seeing three never will, however talented. That is why the projection leans on recent target volume rather than on name value, and why a tight end in a two-receiver offense can outrank a better-known wideout.
Yards per catch are the noisy part. One busted coverage can turn a 30-yard day into a 90-yard one, so a receiver projected for 55 yards finishing anywhere from 20 to 100 is an ordinary week. The projection is most useful where it sits well away from the posted line.
Where a sportsbook line has been logged for a player, the board shows it with the side the projection falls on. Books post player lines late in the week, so most rows show a dash until close to kickoff. These are reference projections, not graded plays: in the NFL only the moneyline is graded. How the sides have fared against real lines still shows on the performance page, wins and losses alike.
Players ruled out or placed on injured reserve disappear from the board when you load the page. The targets a missing receiver leaves behind are not reassigned automatically, so when a WR1 is ruled out, nudge the rest of that passing game up yourself. The NFL injury report lists who is out, game by game.
An XGBoost model trained on past receiving games projects the median receiving yards for each player. It uses his targets and receiving yards over his last three, six and ten games, prior games only, and the receiving yards his opponent has allowed recently. Sportsbook lines are never an input.
Wide receivers, tight ends and running backs with recent passing-game usage, filterable by position. A player needs a few games of targets before the model projects him, and anyone ruled out or on injured reserve is removed when the page loads. Quarterbacks and passing yards are not covered.
It is the number the player should beat about half the time. A 60-yard projection says the over and the under at 60 are roughly a coin flip, not that he will catch for exactly 60. The useful signal is a book line several yards away from the projection.
No. The board is for members, updated daily through the week. Members see every receiver, along with the graded NFL moneyline plays and the MLB, NBA and NHL boards. These are reference projections, not graded plays.
NFL moneyline picks every week, plus MLB, NBA and NHL picks, player props and live trackers. Every play is graded in public, wins and losses alike. See plans to get started.