NFL Playoff & Super Bowl Odds 2026
Every team's chance of winning its division, reaching the playoffs, taking the conference and lifting the trophy — from 20,000 simulated seasons played out over the remaining schedule, built on the same opponent-adjusted ratings that feed our weekly game models.
Super Bowl Odds
| Team | Proj. Record | Playoffs | Conference | Super Bowl |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Seattle Seahawks NFC West | 11.3-5.7 | 76.3% | 18.9% | 10.7% |
Denver Broncos AFC West | 10.3-6.7 | 68.9% | 13.7% | 7.5% |
Houston Texans AFC South | 10.3-6.7 | 67.9% | 13.1% | 7.2% |
Buffalo Bills AFC East | 10.0-7.0 | 64.8% | 12.6% | 6.7% |
San Francisco 49ers NFC West | 10.5-6.5 | 67.0% | 12.3% | 6.4% |
Jacksonville Jaguars AFC South | 9.8-7.2 | 60.8% | 10.1% | 5.4% |
Philadelphia Eagles NFC East | 9.7-7.3 | 60.3% | 9.4% | 4.6% |
Detroit Lions NFC North | 9.8-7.2 | 56.4% | 8.9% | 4.4% |
Minnesota Vikings NFC North | 9.5-7.5 | 53.3% | 8.6% | 4.4% |
New England Patriots AFC East | 8.9-8.1 | 51.0% | 7.9% | 4.0% |
Division Odds
AFC East
AFC North
AFC South
AFC West
NFC East
NFC North
NFC South
NFC West
How these numbers are built
Each team carries an opponent-adjusted Elo rating built only from games already played. Every remaining game on the schedule is simulated at that rating, with home advantage, 20,000 times over. Each simulated season is then seeded under the real NFL format — four division winners, three wild cards — and the bracket is played out with reseeding and a neutral-site Super Bowl.
How much to trust it: Preseason Elo predicts final season win totals at corr 0.430, MAE 2.41 wins over 352 team-seasons (2015-2025), against 2.6 for giving every team 8.5. Real signal, and a modest one; it sharpens as results land.
Ties are not simulated. A division winner is decided on record, then head-to-head, then division and conference record, then at random; seeding among division winners and wild cards uses record, division and conference record, then at random, without head-to-head. Elo carries team strength only — injuries and trades enter the number only once results move the rating. Projected records are conservative: the strength-uncertainty term compresses them by roughly a further 14%, so a top team's true projection is about half a win higher than shown.
Last rebuilt 2026-09-11 21:28:13 UTC.
What Our NFL Models Cover
Season Futures
Division, playoff, conference and Super Bowl probabilities for all 32 teams, rebuilt every morning as results land.
Game Lines
Moneyline, spread and totals for every game, scored against the closing number so the record reflects real bets.
Player Props
Rushing yards, receiving yards and anytime touchdown projections, filtered against the injury report and roster status before publishing.
Graded Record
Every market's wins, losses and pushes are published on the performance page — including the ones that are losing.
NFL Betting Guides
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Please gamble responsibly.