NFL Playoff & Super Bowl Odds 2026
Every team's chance of winning its division, reaching the playoffs, taking the conference and lifting the trophy — from 20,000 simulated seasons played out over the remaining schedule, built on the same opponent-adjusted ratings that feed our weekly game models.
Super Bowl Odds
| Team | Proj. Record | Playoffs | Conference | Super Bowl |
|---|---|---|---|---|
San Francisco 49ers NFC West | 13.2-3.8 | 97.8% | 28.9% | 15.4% |
Minnesota Vikings NFC North | 12.5-4.5 | 93.9% | 21.4% | 11.3% |
Buffalo Bills AFC East | 11.9-5.1 | 89.5% | 20.6% | 11.1% |
Jacksonville Jaguars AFC South | 11.0-6.0 | 83.3% | 14.2% | 7.4% |
Kansas City Chiefs AFC West | 11.6-5.4 | 88.3% | 15.1% | 7.1% |
Denver Broncos AFC West | 10.9-6.1 | 79.4% | 13.3% | 7.0% |
Seattle Seahawks NFC West | 9.8-7.2 | 64.9% | 10.4% | 5.5% |
New England Patriots AFC East | 9.7-7.3 | 66.1% | 8.4% | 4.2% |
Chicago Bears NFC North | 10.4-6.6 | 68.0% | 8.0% | 4.1% |
Detroit Lions NFC North | 9.7-7.3 | 57.2% | 6.9% | 3.4% |
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Division Odds
AFC East
AFC North
AFC South
AFC West
NFC East
NFC North
NFC South
NFC West
How these numbers are built
Each team carries an opponent-adjusted Elo rating built only from games already played. Every remaining game on the schedule is simulated at that rating, with home advantage, 20,000 times over. Each simulated season is then seeded under the real NFL format — four division winners, three wild cards — and the bracket is played out with reseeding and a neutral-site Super Bowl.
How much to trust it: Preseason Elo predicts final season win totals at corr 0.430, MAE 2.41 wins over 352 team-seasons (2015-2025), against 2.6 for giving every team 8.5. Real signal, and a modest one; it sharpens as results land.
Ties are not simulated. A division winner is decided on record, then head-to-head, then division and conference record, then at random; seeding among division winners and wild cards uses record, division and conference record, then at random, without head-to-head. Elo carries team strength only — injuries and trades enter the number only once results move the rating. Projected records are conservative: the strength-uncertainty term compresses them by roughly a further 14%, so a top team's true projection is about half a win higher than shown.
Last rebuilt 2026-10-25 09:34:39 UTC.
What Our NFL Models Cover
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Division, playoff, conference and Super Bowl probabilities for all 32 teams, rebuilt every morning as results land.
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Graded Record
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This Week's NFL Player Props
NFL Player Prop Projections
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Anytime Touchdown Scorer Predictions
Every player on the slate ranked by his chance to find the end zone, with inactives removed as the injury reports land. For members.
NFL Rushing Yards Props Today
A median rushing yards projection for every running back on the slate, next to the book line once one is posted. For members.
NFL Receiving Yards Props Today
Receiving yards projections for every WR, TE and back, built from recent targets and the defense faced. For members.
NFL Injury Report — Starters Ruled Out
Out, Doubtful and Questionable for every game on the slate, with each player's snap share so a starting tackle and a backup don't read the same. Refreshed three times a day.
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